While the national media is full of stories about fire in the equatorial rain forest, an important story was quietly published in Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2019, “Fire-regime changes in Canada over the last half century.”
“Nationally, trends in both area burned and number of large fires (≥200 ha) have increased significantly since 1959, which might be due to increases in lightning-caused fires. Human-caused fires, in contrast, have shown a decline. Results suggest that large fires have been getting larger over the last 57 years and that the fire season has been starting approximately one week earlier and ending one week later. At the regional level, trends in fire regimes are variable across the country, with fewer significant trends. Area burned, number of large fires and lightning-caused fires are increasing in most of western Canada, whereas human-caused fires are either stable or declining.”
They continued, “The 2018 fire season in BC was the worst on record, exceeding the 1,210,000 ha burned in 2017. In California, the largest (“Mendocino Complex”; 185,800 ha), the most destructive (“Camp Fire”; 18 804 structures), and the deadliest (“Camp Fire”; 86 fatalities) fires on record occurred in 2018. The weight of evidence suggests that recent catastrophic fires in these regions are not merely outliers, but rather indications of what the future holds. In essence, it appears that we are entering a new era of fire regimes with no historical analogue.”
They concluded, “For the predicted near future, more active fire regimes, fire suppression limitations, and the need to balance both the positive and negative aspects of wildfire necessitate that people adapt and learn to live with more fires on a rapidly changing landscape. As such, fire regime changes in the near future may work to speed the impetus for individuals, corporations and governments to transition to a more environmentally sustainable future, before it is too late.”
— Pat Kerr